Blog
Market analysis and investment opportunities written by Miguel Braun.
Semiconductor ecosystem, AI bottlenecks and investment opportunities. ASML, TSMC, NVIDIA, Micron, hyperscalers and insights from Elon Musk and Jensen Huang on growth limits.
Analysis of the contradiction between Milei's anti-inflation rhetoric and the economic team's actions on the dollar, interest rates and liquidity.
The unwinding of the LEFIs, the dollar rally and the BCRA's response. Why intervention contradicts the government's Hayekian principles and holds back the rate cuts the economy needs.
A concrete proposal to free the FX market without relying on the IMF: exporters that keep their FX, importers buying at the MEP and the cleanup of the BCRA's balance sheet.
Argentine stocks are down 25% in USD since January. Analysis of the vicious circle between capital controls, reserves and the IMF, and why the market is still a buying opportunity.
YPF trades at 1x book value with a 28% earnings yield, 36% shale production growth and massive export projects. The most attractive company in Argentina on fundamentals.
Why switch from Stellantis to Banco Galicia: Argentina's largest bank with a 36% ROE, trading at 5x earnings, ahead of the tax amnesty and the end of capital controls.
How to build a 50/50 portfolio between pesos and dollar-denominated assets as the dollar drops. Banks, Oil & Gas and Argentine stocks as the best investment in the world.
Analysis of the closing of the third monetary emission tap and why freeing the FX market is just around the corner, without the need to accumulate reserves.
Fundamental analysis of BMA: 28% ROE in USD, trading 20% below DCF intrinsic value and with the first liberal-libertarian government in history as a tailwind.
Vista gained 160% in 2022, with exports +446% YoY and net income +325% YoY. Valuation analysis and why the company still has upside from Vaca Muerta.
Ternium trades below the value of its current assets and its book value. 35% earnings yield, 9% annual dividend and 128% DCF upside. A Benjamin Graham net-net.
The BCRA has not met any of its goals in 90 years: neither monetary nor financial stability nor economic development. A full analysis and 5 concrete measures to cut public spending.
Petrobras, the Brazilian oil & gas giant with 14–20% annual dividends, trading near book value with excellent returns on capital employed.
Stellantis trades below its available cash and its book value, with 140–175% DCF upside. The FCA-PSA merger generated €3.2B in synergies in 2021. Strong BUY.
VALE, one of the largest mining companies in the world, with an 18% annual dividend, Enterprise Value below the value of its assets and a 10% share buyback program. Mega Strong BUY.
Warren Buffett's conglomerate at 9x earnings vs 26x for the S&P 500, trading below its Enterprise Value and with 60 years of outperformance vs the index. A full analysis of BRK.
What the FED is, how quantitative easing works, when to buy stocks and what monetary tightening implies for global markets and risk assets.
Pampa Energía trades with a $223M margin of safety, 22% annual ROCE in USD and sales growing 58% YoY. Argentina's leading integrated gas and electricity company.
Our analysis methodology: horizontal and vertical company analysis, valuation ratios, ROCE, earnings yield, technical analysis and the qualitative factors that drive the value of a stock.
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